"Saving" capitalism

[I wrote the following in response to a friend who posted this article on his Facebook page. I apologize for the lack of annotated links in this post.]

The article starts by blaming Bush for a declining market. That's not really fair. Obama is doing exactly what Bush was doing when he left office (stimulus/bailouts). That is, if Bush had been President for two more years, the economy would likely be in the exact same place it is today. 9/11, coupled with the bursting tech bubble, is what originally sank the economy. Greenspan then held interest rates down, and the Dow Jones was back up to around 14,000 in late 2007. (How's that for one-sided reporting on the author's part... only pointing to the Dow at 8,500 on Bush's last day.) Greenspan's plan backfired, though. The low interest rates created a bubble in the housing market leading to all kinds of crazy gimmicks on the banks' parts. These fell apart in late 2007, and the market tanked again.

In response, the government began bailing out banks, the auto industry, anyone who could get get their hands into the proverbial cookie jar. Bush and Obama both did it, and it was a bad idea both times. Neither of them "saved" capitalism. The problem is that neither of them (or anyone in the government) has the backbone to let capitalism do its job. Capitalism means failure for those who can't compete and for those who do it fraudulently. The bailed out auto companies fall into the first category; the banks and insurance companies subsidizing their schemes fall into the second. Of course GM and Chrysler are making cars again! The government gave them the money to do it, and the government did it because it was politically better to try to save jobs (or at least that was the thinking at the time). Nothing about that investment other than the perceived political upside was a good thing at the time. To argue now that the fact that the government made (or possibly will make) money means the investment was a good one is to argue that the ends justify the means. That is the last argument anyone should apply to the state in any of its dealings.

The problem with the economy now is that Bernanke is making the same mistake(s) that Greenspan made. He's holding interest rates down at zero. (Remember the housing bubble? Why does no one see that Bernanke's cure is actually more of the poison?) Bernanke's got huge problem, though. The low interest rates aren't working. Banks are hoarding the cash because they still have more toxic assets on their books. What's his solution? He's turned on the printing presses and is using the new money to buy U.S. Treasuries in the hopes of bringing down long term interest rates. He claims he can do this because inflation is tame. That's because banks are hording the cash he's printing. Gold is continuing to rise in price, though; the market knows what is going on. Look also at other commodities like cotton, oil, etc. They're fairly stable now, but that's because producers hedge their bets by buying futures. Come Spring/Summer of next year, prices of those items are going to skyrocket (the same effect could probably be achieved by banks finally beginning to lend again all at once), and Bernanke won't be able to stop it. He can't raise interest rates like Volcker did, because unemployment is already high. (Volcker had the luxury of being able to drive unemployment up with interest rates so he could tame inflation.) The other alternative is that China stops buying up U.S. Treasuries (it's already making noises about doing that very thing) or the entire market just loses faith in the entire system (i.e. the government's ability or intention to repay its debt). When, not if, one of those things happens, the economy is going to collapse, not just tank. Think hyperinflation like in Chile in the 70's.

Yes, it would have been bad if the government had not intervened in the economy, but the government's "saving" of capitalism makes each attempt by the market to flush out the bad stuff even worse than the previous one because it (the government) won't actually let the bad stuff be flushed out. The government isn't saving capitalism. It is destroying it by making everyone think that what we have is capitalism.

[Here are some other witticisms that I sprinkled later on in the thread.]

In response to a comment that Democrats lost the midterms because Obama/they failed to get the message out:

Getting the message out is not leadership. It's politics. And we don't need either.

And in response to a comment that Americans "got it right" in this most recent election:

Americans never get it right in any election. The government keeps getting elected.